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Prediction of complex dynamics - who cares about chaos?

Prof. Dr. Holger Kantz:


Complex systems in Nature are most often so complex that we are unable to set up a deterministic model which describes them perfectly. In such cases, any conclusions drawn from the investigation of a model system must be carefully validated by comparison to nature in order to be a relevant statement about the natural system. A relevant consequence of such model errors is that stochastic elements in the model can represent our uncertainty about the details of the dynamics.
In this talk, we illustrate the issue of stochastic nonlinear models and their interpretation, mainly by refering to weather predictions.


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